Labour’s support has fallen to its lowest level since September as the party pays the price for disunity after the third failed attempt to ditch Gordon Brown.But a Populus poll for The Times, undertaken over the weekend, shows that despite the short-term impact of the abortive putsch Mr Brown has sharply improved his personal ratings, especially among Labour’s core support of unskilled manual workers.
Meanwhile, some of David Cameron’s weaknesses have been exposed.
Labour has lost two points since early December, falling to 28 per cent, while the Tories have gained three points to 41 per cent — their highest level since September and the largest lead since then. No party has ever made up such a gap so close to a general election. The Liberal Democrats are on 19 per cent, down one point.
Last night Labour MPs rallied behind Mr Brown as he made plain that he would fight the election on his record in taking Britain out of recession. He told a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party that it had been the biggest financial crisis for generations but that “a hard-won recovery will be the platform for victory”.
Mr Brown will get some consolation from the poll finding that 41 per cent of voters — up eight points since last September — believe that he is the best leader that Labour could have at present. Among Labour voters that figure is 71 per cent, up nine points, underlining how isolated the anti-Brown plotters are in the party.
Just 12 per cent say that they can think of another Labour politician who would make a better leader. But when pressed, nearly half this group say they don’t know or cannot remember. Of those who can, David Miliband is in the lead on 28 per cent, up 15 points since September. But this is just 3 per cent of all voters.
Mr Cameron maintains his lead over Mr Brown on managing the economy and leading Britain after the election, but the margin has narrowed. Mr Cameron is regarded by 40 per cent — down five percentage points since last October — as the best leader to deal with the recession.
The most worrying finding for the Tories is that Mr Cameron is seen to be on the side of the rich over ordinary people, by 50 per cent to 42 per cent. By contrast, Mr Brown is seen as 64 per cent for ordinary people and 26 per cent for the rich. This is the only area where he is better placed than Mr Cameron, who is doing much better among men than women.
However, Mr Brown has substantially improved his ratings for strength, decisiveness and being up to the job of prime minister, with the improvement predominantly being among unskilled working-class voters. This will reinforce the advocates of an approach to bolster Labour’s core vote.
If these voting intention figures were repeated on polling day, the Tories could end up with a Commons majority of nearly 60, just short of where Labour is now. But this assumes a uniform national switch of votes and ignores regional and local variations.
Labour MPs, many of them furious over last week’s putsch by Geoff Hoon and Patricia Hewitt, poured into last night’s meeting, where Mr Brown was flanked by his three election lieutenants: Lord Mandelson, Harriet Harman and Douglas Alexander. He told the MPs: “I am not a team of one. I am one of a team.” He told the troika: “You are all leaders of this campaign.”
He is said to have conceded power to Ms Harman and other ministers as part of the price for Cabinet backing.
The mood at the meeting was broadly supportive of the Prime Minister, but it is understood that David Winnick, a senior backbencher, did speak out over his leadership. Mr Winnick said that despite doing his best Mr Brown had failed to win over the electorate, bringing the possibility that Labour could let in a Tory government.
Mr Brown appeared upbeat, insisting that Labour would be the party of aspiration. “People’s homes, people’s jobs, people’s aspirations — they will be on the ballot paper at the election,” he said. “Our record is not enough. We have got to say what we will do.”
Taking on Mr Cameron’s claim that the Tories represented change, Mr Brown said that the election would be about “the right kind of change and wrong kind of change for Britain”.
The attempted coup has strengthened his position internally. Mr Miliband hailed Mr Brown as a man of enormous strengths, strong values and real determination to do what is right by the people. From Mr Miliband — one of the ministers the rebels had hoped would help them — this was proof that the putsch had been totally counterproductive. Lord Mandelson told the meeting: “We will not allow others to insert wedges between us.”
Populus interviewed a random sample of 1,509 adults aged over 18 between January 8 and 10. Interviews were conducted across the country and the results have been weighted to be representative of all adults.
